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Singapore’s Lee Rates China’s Leaders

Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding father and minister mentor, and the grand old man of Asian politics, is famously blunt with his views. All the more, it would seem, in supposedly private diplomatic conversations than in public.

Bloomberg News

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, left, with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on Nov. 14, 2010.

In one of the most blistering lines in a trove of diplomatic correspondence that has already produced a wealth of undiplomatic zingers, Mr. Lee was quoted in a June 4, 2009 U.S. cable released by WikiLeaks as telling U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg that the North Koreans are “psychopathic types, with a ‘flabby old chap’ for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation.”

In the same meeting, which took place on May 30, 2009 in Singapore’s Presidential Palace, Mr. Lee also held forth on China and its leaders. It’s fair to say they came off rather better in the minister mentor’s estimation. Some excerpts:

On Xi Jinping:

The Deputy Secretary asked if in the future a leader like Xi Jinping would continue the policies on Taiwan followed by Hu Jintao. MM Lee responded affirmatively. Xi is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protégé, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes.

On Wang Qishan:

MM Lee said Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meeting with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man.

On China’s Rise

MM Lee said China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma, he stated.

MM Lee said China will not reach the American level in terms of military capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports, including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma.

On Young Chinese

MM Lee said the best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States, with the UK as the next option, then Japan. While they are there, it is important that they be treated as equals, with the cultural support they may need as foreigners. Why not have International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs for China? Why not have Chinese cadets at West Point alongside Vietnamese cadets and Indian cadets? America’s advantage is that it can make use of the talent of the entire world, as in Silicon Valley. China still tends to try to keep the foreigners in Beijing and Shanghai. MM Lee noted that his own experience as a student in the UK had left him with an enduring fondness for the UK. When he spent two months at Harvard in 1968, an American professor had invited him home for Thanksgiving. This was not the sort of thing that happened in the UK, and Lee had realized he was dealing with a different civilization. In the future, China’s leaders will have PhDs and MBAs from American universities, he predicted.

On Taiwan:

MM Lee said former President Chen Shui-bian had left Taiwan in a weak economic position, which had enabled President Ma Ying-Jeou to come to power with his pledge to strengthen the economy through means including expanding the three links with China. In Beijing, former President Jiang Zemin was wedded to his eight-point approach, but President Hu Jintao was more flexible. Jiang wanted to show he was a great man by solving the Taiwan issue in his lifetime, but Hu is more patient and does not have any fixed timeline. In Chinese domestic politics, Hu had wanted Vice Premier Li Keqiang from the Communist Youth League to emerge as his successor, not Vice President Xi Jinping, but Hu did his calculations and accepted Xi when it became clear that Xi had the necessary backing from the rest of the leadership. Similarly, on Taiwan, Hu will be pragmatic. It does not matter to Hu if it takes 10 years or 20 or 30. The key is building links with Taiwan. As in the case of Hong Kong, if necessary the tap could be turned off, he said.

In this context, MM Lee said, Hu could live with Ma’s positions on the ‘92 consensus and on not addressing the reunification issue during his term in office. What mattered to Hu was that Taiwan not seek independence. If that happened, China has 1,000 missiles and is building its capacity to hold the U.S. fleet at a distance. The implicit question for Taiwan’s leaders is if that is what they want, MM Lee said.

MM Lee stated that the alternative is Mainland investment in Taiwan stocks and property. The Mainland has already assured Hong Kong that it will help out economically. The Mainland has not said this to Taiwan, but the Mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Director, Wang Yi, did urge Chinese companies to invest in Taiwan. In four years Taiwan’s economy will pick up and Ma will win re-election. The DPP lacks strong potential candidates. Su Zhen-chang is promising, but seems unlikely to be able to win. Meanwhile, even the traditionally DPP-supporting farmers in Taiwan’s South need China’s market for vegetables and other products. Taiwan’s continued participation in the World Health Assembly depends on Beijing. Beijing’s calculation seems to be to prevent Taiwan independence in the near term, then bring Taiwan “back to China,” even if it takes 40 or 50 years. MM Lee said he is looking forward to visiting Fujian Province, where preparations are underway for a new southern economic area linked with Taiwan.

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Renewables Are the New 'Space Race' for the U.S., Official Says

Investments in technology innovation pay off with economic prosperity, Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said in a speech Monday in Washington, D.C. He said that the China-based solar company Suntech Power Holdings is succeeding not because of low-cost labor but because of technical innovations. Above, Suntech modules generate power at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Steven Chu, a longtime professor who is now secretary of energy, says the United States is facing a crucial test.

With the rest of the developed and developing world moving toward renewable and cleaner energy technologies, he said in a speech Monday, the time is now for the nation to seize the initiative.

“America still has an opportunity to lead in a world that will need essentially a new Industrial Revolution,” he said, adding that developing lower-cost, clean-energy technologies “is a way to secure our future prosperity.”

“But I think time is running out,” Mr. Chu said in an hourlong talk at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

He described the situation as a new “Sputnik moment” for the country, referring to the shock U.S. leaders and citizens felt when the Soviet Union launched the first Earth-orbiting satellite in 1957.

The nation quickly began mobilizing to ramp up science education, research and development to ensure that it could compete and ultimately become a leader in space-age technology.

This time, China is the country forging ahead, with 40 percent of the world’s solar photovoltaic manufacturing capacity, five of the top 10 silicon-based solar PV manufacturers, and three of the top 10 makers of wind turbines. China has made no secret of its intent to promote new-energy industries as a route to economic success.

The energy secretary referred to a 2009 speech in which H.E. Wen Jiabao, premier of China’s State Council, said, “We should see scientific and technological innovation as an important pillar and make greater effort to develop new industries of strategic importance. Science and technology is a powerful engine of economic growth. To overcome the severe international financial crisis, we must rely more on science and technology in making breakthroughs and boosting development.

“We will make China a country of innovation. We will seek breakthroughs in key technologies that are vital to industrial transformation and upgrading, speed up the development of new industries of strategic importance, and give priority to research, development, and industrial application of technologies in new energy” and other fields. “We will accelerate the development of a low-carbon economy and green economy so as to gain an advantageous position in the international industrial competition.”

Mr. Chu, a Nobel Prize winner in physics, said the United States, which devotes 0.14 percent of its $3.6 trillion annual budget to energy research and development, needs “sensible, long-range energy policies” to be competitive.

He said a commonly held myth among Americans is that China has become the leading silicon solar PV manufacturing center as a result of low-cost labor. Mr. Chu told the journalists and others at the gathering that he toured the headquarters factory of Suntech Power Holdings Co., China’s leading solar PV manufacturing company.

“This company, Suntech, as I toured this plant, it was 100 meters by 400 meters and four stories. It was a high-tech, modern plant that imports its raw materials – raw crystalline silicon – from where? The United States.” The company makes solar wafers and cells at its China plant, but has established plants around the world that assemble the energy-producing modules. One such factory is now operating in Arizona.

“So, what is wrong with this picture?” Mr. Chu asked. The plant in China “is a high-tech, automated factory. It’s not succeeding because of cheap labor.” Instead, he said, the company’s polycrystalline silicon modules have set a record for production efficiency. Its success stems from producing a lower-cost, higher-efficiency module.

“This is the threat that I see,” Mr. Chu told the audience.

“One of the drivers with wind and solar and these other technologies is, we think it can be cheaper than fossil fuel,” Mr. Chu told the group. “In the end, this will be a cornerstone for our economic prosperity.”

"What I’m trying to tell the American public is that this is an economic opportunity,” he said, an investment “in the long run, for the future economic health of the country.” The time is fast approaching in which the investment has to be made to keep pace with countries like China, he added.

In his 2009 speech at a meeting of the World Economic Forum, Wen Jiabao also talked about the country’s actions to address global warming.

“The world economy is undergoing profound changes and transition,” China’s premier said. “The future and destiny of all countries are more closely interconnected than at any time in history. We should be more forward-looking and more broad-minded. To promote world harmony and prosperity, I propose that we make concerted efforts in the following areas:

“First, tackle climate change. Climate change is a common challenge confronting the entire mankind. Each and every country, enterprise and individual should assume a due share of responsibility in meeting the challenge. China takes this issue very seriously. We have developed the national program on tackling climate change, increased resources for scientific research and taken aggressive steps to adjust the industrial structure with a view to saving energy and reducing pollutants.”

As in 1957, when the 184-pound Sputnik, bristling with spiky antennas, soared far above the United States, untouchable and unmatched by the best technology this country could muster, a turning point has arrived, the secretary of energy said.

“I’m hoping that the United States can recognize the economic opportunity that virtually all of Europe, Western Europe, has recognized, and developed countries in Asia have recognized, and developing countries around the world are beginning to recognize,” Mr. Chu said.

“America, I believe, will wake up and seize the opportunity, and when it does, it still has the greatest innovation machine in the world.”

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Steven Chu's Speech

Secretary Chu highlighted several crucial technologies where the United States must innovate or risk falling far behind, such as:

High Voltage Transmission.
China has deployed the world's first Ultra High Voltage AC and DC lines - including one capable of delivering 6.4 gigawatts to Shanghai from a hydroelectric plant nearly 1300 miles away in southwestern China. These lines are more efficient and carry much more power over longer distances than those in the United States.

High Speed Rail.
In the span of six years, China has gone from importing this technology to exporting it, with the world's fastest train and the world's largest high speed rail network, which will become larger than the rest of the world combined by the end of the decade. Some short distance plane routes have already been cancelled, and train travel from Beijing to Shanghai (roughly equivalent to New York to Chicago) has been cut from 11 hours to 4 hours.

Advanced Coal Technologies.
China is rapidly deploying supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal combustion plants, which have fewer emissions and are more efficient than conventional coal plants because they burn coal at much higher temperatures and pressures. Last month, Secretary Chu toured an ultra-supercritical plant in Shanghai which claims to be 45 to 48 percent efficient. The most efficient U.S. plants are about 40 percent efficient. China is also moving quickly to design and deploy technologies for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants as well as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

Nuclear Power.
China has more than 30 nuclear power plants under construction, more than any other country in the world, and is actively researching fourth generation nuclear power technologies.

Alternative Energy Vehicles.
China has developed a draft plan to invest $17 billion in central government funds in fuel economy, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, electric and fuel cell vehicles, with the goal of producing 5 million new energy vehicles and 15 million fuel-efficient conventional vehicles by 2020.

Renewable Energy.
China is installing wind power at a faster rate than any nation in the world, and manufactures 40 percent of the world's solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. It is home to three of the world's top ten wind turbine manufacturers and five of the top ten silicon based PV manufacturers in the world.

Supercomputing.
Last month, the Tianhe-1A, developed by China's National University of Defense Technology, became the world's fastest supercomputer. While the United States - and the Department of Energy in particular - still has unrivalled expertise in the useful application of high performance computers to advance scientific research and develop technology, America must continue to improve the speed and capacity of our advanced supercomputers.

The Billionaires' Road Trip Premieres Tonight On CNBC (Preview & Excerpts)

Warren Buffett on BYD:
In the last 15 years they went from nothing to becoming a very important company in several industries and autos are very competitive so nobody knows for sure who will be the winners 5 or 10 years down the road. But I think it would be a mistake to bet against BYD. I mean you've got a company that has enormous momentum. You've got a fellow at the top who's still only 45 years of age, who's got very big dreams and who has shown an ability to make his dreams come true. And you do have this cooperation between labor and government - so big things could come out of there.

Charlie Munger On His Reaction To Seeing BYD's Operations:
Well, this always happens to me. I am constantly finding that my over enthusiasms weren't strong enough. And so I had this extreme appreciation of byd. When I see it more closely I underestimated it. The culture is really strong and the momentum in place is really strong. And the morals of the place are really strong. And so I came here with wildly enthusiastic expectations and of course ive been surprised. I underestimated it.

Munger On BYD's Future:
I think it will have hiccups and bumps, but I think it will just basically go from triumph to triumph. I think what it will do will be awesome.

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BYD F3 goes into volume production in Russia

BYD's F3 compact car has gone into volume production at Russian automaker Taganrog's plant early last month, with a planned output of 10,000 units for 2010, Kommersant reported. 

Taganrog has recently signed a contract worth $3.6 million with BYD, a Chinese carmaker backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett, for manufacturing the F3 cars. Volume production was scheduled to start this summer, with 10,000 units expected to roll off the assembly line before the end of this year, Taganrog said.

The F3 looks quite similar in front appearance to the ninth generation Toyota Corolla and back appearance to the Honda Fit Aria, and is the top selling compact sedan in China.

When it comes to the power system, the F3 features a four cylinder, 1.5 liter, Mitsubishi Orion engine (4G15S) with distributor-less Bosch ignition and fuel injection, which is mated to a 5-speed manual transmission - similar to that used in the Mitsubishi Colt, Galant and Mirage vehicles.

On top of that, the car boasts Euro 4 emissions standards. Engine output is 75KW (100hp). Fuel efficiency is rated at approximately 7L/100KM (40mpg).

Since entering the Russian market in 2005, BYD has sold 10,800 vehicles, of which 5,341 units were sold in 2008.

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Posted on “Kommersant”

Waiting to hear an address by Mr Zhukov, Wen Jiabao went to the Hills for a meeting with Russian President.There, he told Mr Medvedev that "morning businessmen signed 13 contracts worth $ 8.6 billion. The largest of the documents signed was an agreement on $ 3.6 billion between TagAZ and BYD Auto Release sedan BYD F3 ("Kommersant" wrote on the project July 6)