王传福：私家车领域要优先发展双模电动车

我简单讲讲比亚迪这几年在电动车战略上的思考，仅供大家思考。比亚迪本身是做电池的，又是做汽车的，这是一个非常独特的方式，让两个技术进行联动。最近我们在深圳卖的双模电动车，目前卖的很好，同时我们有50部电动出租车在试运行。

何毅：面对王传福这样的旗帜性人物，我觉得我没法跟他提问题，我希望大家同意给他一个完整的时间，让他能够给大家阐述他的电动车战略。

　　王传福：今天很高兴，感谢搜狐网给这次机会。我简单讲讲比亚迪这几年在电动车战略上的思考，仅供大家思考。比亚迪本身是做电池的，又是做汽车的，这是一个非常独特的方式，让两个技术进行联动。中国这几年的汽车发展，已经到现在的1800万。汽车家庭已经不是梦想，应该说十年前汽车进入家庭是梦想，现在不是梦想。每个家庭都有一部轿车。每个人拥有一部轿车也不是什么梦想，我想未来20年、30年也能够完成。这一句话的背后，我们国家可以思考，中国有4亿个家庭，如果一个家庭一部轿车，我们有4亿部轿车，一部轿车一年用两亿吨油，那就花5亿吨油，哪有这么多油？我想中国发展电动车汽车具有紧迫性，涉及到国家安全问题。至于说二氧化碳减排问题，这是顺带要解决的问题。这是我想强调的一个观点。

　　第二个观点，电动车大家实际上有很多误解。当然很难，也不是想象得那么难，主要一是在于电池技术，如果电池通过了，别的方面也就迎刃而解。电动车实际上结构简单。二是节约，不管从资源和能源也好，都比较节约。包括像控制系统是95，在90个以上的效力。传统燃油车的效力，从能量来算，平均也在20%左右。真正带动车走动的也就在20%左右，大排量更小。我们现在要提倡资源节约型，这样就节约省钱。百公里耗油70个40块钱，一个是10块钱，省了30块钱，因此节约。三是环保，电动车要简单、节约、环保六个字。可能大家对电动车有误会，实际上电动车普及以后，它会变得非常可靠，非常简单，非常环保。

　　关于汽车的路线问题，我想我们要根据不同的市场来定。我们觉得汽车要从优先度来讲，公交大巴应该放在首位，公交和出租车加起来1170万。1170万除以11才百分之一点几，这些公交系统耗了不少油，耗油量占到整个交通25%。大家知道一部轿车1.6排量和私家车1.6排量的，私家车才运行几个小时？两到三个小时。出租车不一样，一天拼命运行，一天运行22个小时，一辆出租车相当于10辆私家车的耗油量和排污量。一辆公交大巴相当于30—40辆私家车的耗油量和排污量。油从哪里来？尾气排哪儿去？这都是我们要考虑的问题。因此，我觉得从经济这一角度来说，我觉得优先把公交电动化发展在首要的位置。对于公交，我的观点是要优先，同时走纯电动路线。大家知道公交对电池的要求，尤其是大巴，固定路线、固定区域、固定时间，然后政府可以照顾到。不像私家车，私家车是老百姓决定的，公共车不一样，政府是可以影响它的，也是可以说话的。这些领域，我觉得这些应该电动化。

　　第二点，私家车现在是6%的购车人，目前是上下班需要，同时坚固旅行。这时候我们觉得适合这种市场需要的，我觉得用双模电动车，或者有人叫增程式的都是一个概念，这类车是有市场的。国家一批不可能建那么多充电站，或者城市与城市之间的都不可能一下子被覆盖。所以，我认为在这个领域里，双模电动车拥有它的市场。既坚固了周一到周五的上下班，两条系统坚固，同时又是混合动力省油。因此我们觉得在私家车领域里要发展双模电动车，这是我的观点。

　　第三点，最近我们在深圳卖的双模电动车，目前卖的很好，同时我们有50部电动出租车在试运行。历程已经达到了150万公里，差不多私家车可以跑五年。原来我们卖车保持电池到底多少保质期？以前我们保质期5年，现在我们通过实际运行数据看，电池保持5年我们是有底的，因为我们在深圳已经运行7万公里没有任何问题。这就是我的经验和观点，谢谢！

　　何毅：论坛要求我必须代表我的网友提一个问题，因为在微博上网友已经非常的热烈。我想代表网友再向王总提一个问题。发展电动车最核心的就是技术，最大的挑战也是技术，技术最核心的应该是电池技术。而比亚迪能够成为中国汽车行业旗帜性的企业，我们得到的信息是比亚迪解决了电动车电池的技术。大家比较感兴趣，想王总给我们介绍一下比亚迪电池现在的状况和今后的规划。

　　王传福：电池科学实际上是材料的科学，因为有了材料的进步才有了电池的进步。电池也发展非常快，从铅酸到了现在的锂电池，还有我们手机上用的钴电池。现在目前锂电池是比较好的。锂电池分好几种，目前随着材料的进步，各有各的优点。汽车电池不能用手机电池这样的东西，汽车是千瓦时，如果要爆炸的话就是一个汽车炸弹，汽车体系要选一种更安全的电池，选来选去选了一种在高温下不分解的电池。但是它也有缺点，最高达到150的瓦时。随着技术的进步每年提高3%左右，按照过往的经验可以提高。这就是我们要在性能上和安全上找一个平衡。目前来说，磷酸铁电池还是比较好的电池。我们比亚迪认为我们目前的领域是磷酸铅锂一个非常好的方向，谢谢。

　　电池除了大的专利以外，大的专利是1991年美国有一所大学他们所注册掉了。除了这种专利后面还有很多种，比如说把一百个电池和两百个电池串联起来，这种差不多就有一百多个专利。我们做的比较早，可能看的比较远一点，我们就把它写成了专利。后人要绕开可能比较困难。因为时间早，所以就占有优势。

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Electric Car Dreams

Watch the full episode. See more NOW on PBS.

Timeline: History of the Electric Car

1832-1839
Scottish inventor Robert Anderson invents the first crude electric carriage powered by non-rechargeable primary cells.

1835
American Thomas Davenport is credited with building the first practical electric vehicle -- a small locomotive.

1859
French physicist Gaston Planté invents the rechargeable lead-acid storage battery. In 1881, his countryman Camille Faure will improve the storage battery's ability to supply current and invent the basic lead-acid battery used in automobiles.

1891
William Morrison of Des Moines, Iowa builds the first successful electric automobile in the United States.

Thomas Edison and an electric car. Courtesy of the Smithsonian

1893
A handful of different makes and models of electric cars are exhibited in Chicago.

1897
The first electric taxis hit the streets of New York City early in the year. The Pope Manufacturing Company of Connecticut becomes the first large-scale American electric automobile manufacturer.

1899
Believing that electricity will run autos in the future, Thomas Alva Edison begins his mission to create a long-lasting, powerful battery for commercial automobiles. Though his research yields some improvements to the alkaline battery, he ultimately abandons his quest a decade later.

1900
The electric automobile is in its heyday. Of the 4,192 cars produced in the United States 28 percent are powered by electricity, and electric autos represent about one-third of all cars found on the roads of New York City, Boston, and Chicago.

A Ford Model T

1908
Henry Ford introduces the mass-produced and gasoline-powered Model T, which will have a profound effect on the U.S. automobile market.

1912
Charles Kettering invents the first practical electric automobile starter. Kettering's invention makes gasoline-powered autos more alluring to consumers by eliminating the unwieldy hand crank starter and ultimately helps pave the way for the electric car's demise.

1920
During the 1920s the electric car ceases to be a viable commercial product. The electric car's downfall is attributable to a number of factors, including the desire for longer distance vehicles, their lack of horsepower, and the ready availability of gasoline.

1966
Congress introduces the earliest bills recommending use of electric vehicles as a means of reducing air pollution. A Gallup poll indicates that 33 million Americans are interested in electric vehicles.

1970s
Concerns about the soaring price of oil -- peaking with the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 -- and a growing environmental movement result in renewed interests in electric cars from both consumers and producers.

1972
Victor Wouk, the "Godfather of the Hybrid," builds the first full-powered, full-size hybrid vehicle out of a 1972 Buick Skylark provided by General Motors (G.M.) for the 1970 Federal Clean Car Incentive Program. The Environmental Protection Association later kills the program in 1976.

Vanguard-Sebring's CitiCar

1974
Vanguard-Sebring's CitiCar makes its debut at the Electric Vehicle Symposium in Washington, D.C. The CitiCar has a top speed of over 30 mph and a reliable warm-weather range of 40 miles. By 1975 the company is the sixth largest automaker in the U.S. but is dissolved only a few years later.

1975
The U.S. Postal Service purchases 350 electric delivery jeeps from AM General, a division of AMC, to be used in a test program.

1976
Congress passes the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act. The law is intended to spur the development of new technologies including improved batteries, motors, and other hybrid-electric components.

1988
Roger Smith, CEO of G.M. , agrees to fund research efforts to build a practical consumer electric car. G.M. teams up with California's AeroVironment to design what would become the EV1, which one employee called "the world's most efficient production vehicle." Some electric vehicle enthusiasts have speculated that the EV1 was never undertaken as a serious commercial venture by the large automaker.

1990
California passes its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate, which requires two percent of the state's vehicles to have no emissions by 1998 and 10 percent by 2003. The law is repeatedly weakened over the next decade to reduce the number of pure ZEVs it requires.

1997
Toyota unveils the Prius -- the world's first commercially mass-produced and marketed hybrid car -- in Japan. Nearly 18,000 units are sold during the first production year.

1997 - 2000
A few thousand all-electric cars (such as Honda's EV Plus, G.M.'s EV1, Ford's Ranger pickup EV, Nissan's Altra EV, Chevy's S-10 EV, and Toyota's RAV4 EV) are produced by big car manufacturers, but most of them are available for lease only. All of the major automakers' advanced all-electric production programs will be discontinued by the early 2000s.

2002
G.M. and DaimlerChrysler sue the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to repeal the ZEV mandate first passed in 1990. The Bush Administration joins that suit.

Crushed EV1 electric cars

2003
G.M. announces that it will not renew leases on its EV1 cars saying it can no longer supply parts to repair the vehicles and that it plans to reclaim the cars by the end of 2004.

2005
On February 16, electric vehicle enthusiasts begin a "Don't Crush" vigil to stop G.M. from demolishing 78 impounded EV1s in Burbank, California. The vigil ends twenty-eight days later when G.M. removes the cars from the facility. In the film "Who Killed the Electric Car" G.M. spokesman Dave Barthmuss states that the EV1s are to be recycled, not just crushed.

2006

Tesla Motors publicly unveils the ultra-sporty Tesla Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show in November. The first production Roadsters will be sold in 2008 with a base price listing of $98,950.

2008

January

A Better Place charging spot

The Israeli government announces its support for a sweeping project to promote the use of electric cars in Israel. The effort will be a joint venture between Better Place, a Palo Alto start-up founded by software maven Shai Agassi, and French automaker Renault-Nissan. Agassi's plan is to create an extensive network of charging spots and to sell EV drivers mileage in their cars like minutes on a cell phone plan. The first Renault electric cars are scheduled to hit the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities in 2011. Better Place announces a host of partnerships to support electric vehicle projects in Denmark, Canada, Japan, Australia and the U.S.

July
Gas prices reach record highs of more than $4 a gallon and car sales drop to their lowest levels in a decade. American automakers begin to shift their production lines away from SUVs and other large vehicles toward smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.

August
On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Barack Obama says he will push to have one million plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles on America's roads by 2015.

November
Struggling to remain profitable during the economic downturn, executives from the Big Three American automakers go to Washington to make the case for a $25 billion Federal bailout of the U.S. automotive industry.

December
BYD, a Chinese battery manufacturer turned automaker, releases the F3DM, the world's first mass produced plug-in hybrid compact sedan. Though they pack less energy than more conventional lithium ion batteries, BYD opts to power the F3DM with a more stable lithium iron phosphate battery. BYD plans to release the F3DM in the U.S. in 2011, but some industry insiders have doubts about whether the car is ready for the U.S. market. Though sales of the car remain sluggish, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchases a 10% stake in the company.

The National Bureau of Economic Research states officially that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007. The economic downturn is global in scope and will continue to exert financial pressures on the already battered U.S. auto industry.

2009

February
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 allocates $2 billion for development of electric vehicle batteries and related technologies. The Department of Energy adds another $400 million to fund building the infrastructure necessary to support plug-in electric vehicles.

April
Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces that the British government will promote the use of electric vehicles in the U.K. by offering a £2,000 subsidy to purchasers. A high-ranking government official estimates that 40% of all cars in Britain will need to be electric or hybrid for the country to reach it's goal of cutting 80% of its CO₂ emissions by 2050.

Chrysler files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. As part of its restructuring, Chrysler forms a partnership with the Italian car maker Fiat.

May
President Obama announces a new gas-mileage policy that will require automakers to meet a minimum fuel-efficiency standard of 35.5 miles a gallon by 2016.

June

The Tesla Roadster

The Department of Energy awards $8 billion in loans to Ford, Nissan, and Tesla Motors to support the development of fuel-efficient vehicles. The automaker loans are the first distributions from a larger $25 billion fund created under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

General Motors, the leading producer of automobiles for most of the 20th Century, files for bankruptcy protection. While strong GM brands such as Chevrolet, Cadillac and GMC are slated to continue, smaller names like Saturn, Hummer and Pontiac will be sold or closed. The federal government will hold a 61 percent stake in the reborn General Motors.

August
Nissan unveils its new electric car, called the LEAF ("Leading, Environmentally Friendly, Affordable, Family Car"). The LEAF is capable of a maximum speed of more than 90 mph, can travel 100 miles on a full charge, and has a battery that can be recharged to 80% of its capacity in 30 minutes. Similar to the Better Place initiative in Israel, Nissan plans to work with the Japanese government and private companies to set up charging station networks across several countries. The first production LEAFs are scheduled to go on sale in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. in the fall of 2010.

Late 2009
Though a few electric cars and plug-in hybrids are currently available on the market, several new models including the Nissan LEAF, Chevrolet Volt, and Mitsubishi i MiEV are scheduled to hit the streets in the near future. Toyota, creator of the popular Prius hybrid, has thus far declined to deliver a fully electric car.

Despite promising signs, the electric car will need to navigate a bumpy road before it can become a viable option for many drivers. Challenges to mass adoption include high sticker prices, limited battery life and travel range, and building charging stations and other infrastructure to support electric vehicles.

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China's Rise: A Shift in Global Influence

During the last three decades China's economy has grown at the phenomenal rate of 10% per year, sometimes even exceeding 12%. Can China maintain such high rates for at least another decade? I think it can. China is starting from a lower base, and its 1.3 billion domestic consumers will keep rates up because their disposable incomes are growing.

As its GDP has increased, China has become more assertive regarding international issues. Those countries on its periphery--Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the ten Asean countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam)--have felt China's growing influence. When these states make policy decisions they now have to take China into account. There is no direct intimidation, but, by denying access to its huge consumer market, China can punish those who are against its interests. Therefore, none of these countries wants to be viewed as antagonistic. Increasingly, this same pressure is being felt worldwide: The balance of power has changed.

The U.S. realizes that China's status has grown and that its views must be accorded their due weight. Were it to feel slighted, China could make its displeasure felt by being uncooperative on international issues or policies that require its support.

Singapore has a special relationship with China. We are 75% Chinese. As our second language is Chinese, it is taught in our schools. Thus we share an ease in communication, which has been a factor in about 3,500 Chinese companies deciding to base their operations in Singapore--155 of which are listed on the Singapore Exchange. From Singapore the Chinese are able to study the region and eventually enter the markets of Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar. Because Singaporean Chinese speak Mandarin, our businessmen, when investing in China, have found it easy to integrate China's workers with ours. But lest Singapore--or any other country in the area--forget that it is a smaller and younger country, Chinese officials obliquely remind ours that their written history goes back 5,000 years to 3000 B.C., leaving unspoken the question: "How old is your country?"

None of the countries on its periphery can resist the attraction of China's market. Slowly, but inexorably, we are being drawn into China's economic orbit. If you look at China's policies over the last three decades there is little doubt that it has every intention of bringing its three northern neighbors--Korea, Japan and Taiwan--as well as the Asean countries into its economic fold. Of course, at the same time we do enjoy benefits in trade and investment.

China is a political and economic power the region cannot ignore. But neither, indeed, can China ignore the U.S. Although it has a smaller population--310 million versus China's 1.3 billion--the purchasing power of Americans is many times that of the Chinese. There is still time for the U.S. to counter China's attraction by instituting a free-trade agreement with other countries in the region. This would prevent these countries from having an excessive dependence on China's market.

Unfortunately the U.S. Congress is against any new free-trade agreements. If the next Congress continues to oppose FTAs, valuable time will be lost, and it may be too late to try again. Congress must be made to realize how high the stakes are and that the outlook for a balanced and equitable relationship between the American and Chinese markets is becoming increasingly difficult. Every year China attracts more imports and exports from its neighbors than the U.S. does from the region. Without an FTA Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Asean countries will be integrated into China's economy--an outcome to be avoided.

A considerable counterbalancing force would be to add India to the mix. Whether India would be willing to enter into an FTA with the U.S., Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Asean nations is the question. Singapore has a free-trade agreement with India, but we are a small country, enjoy good relations with India and do not present a threat to either its export or import market. If India joined such an agreement the combined markets would be more than equal to the pull from China.

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Shai Agassi, Founder & CEO, Better Place - Making a Difference

BYD to Market Battery Car in U.S. Next Year

Chinese battery and car maker BYD Co. plans to start test-marketing an all-electric battery car in the U.S. next year, after almost a year's delay, and is in talks with officials in Los Angeles to supply e-buses that could eventually lead to a manufacturing plant in the city, a senior company executive said.


Originally, the e6 vehicle was supposed to launch in the U.S. this year. The delay has been a setback for the global ambitions of China's auto sector, which wants to use electric-vehicle technology to close the distance with more-established global car makers.

Stella Li, BYD's senior vice president and head of its U.S. operations, said the holdup was caused by BYD's efforts to make the car roomier, especially its rear-seat area that was cramped thanks to a beefy battery pack that needs to be stored under the seat.

In a recent telephone interview, she denied that the delay had anything to do with a possible intellectual-property infringement on certain battery technology by BYD.

Still, an individual close to BYDsaid the postponement was in part a result of fear of potential intellectual-property infringement involving lithium powder. The powder is a critical raw material in high-power lithium-ion batteries that help propel all-electric and plug-in electric hybrid cars, such as the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf, as well as BYD's e6 car.

The individual said, however, that BYD appears to have resolved the problem by securing a legal way to produce or procure lithium powder.

Ms. Li said "BYD's formula [for lithium powder] is different," and the company isn't worried at all about any patent infringement with its technology. "We have our own IP," she said.

She said BYD plans to ship as many as 50 e6 electric cars by the end of next year to fleet customers in Southern California, including the municipal government of Los Angeles. BYD earlier this year began selling e6 cars to taxi operators in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen and is collecting field data to improve the car.

Ms. Li said BYD will make the e6 available for purchases by private buyers in the U.S. in 2012. She declined to forecast demand, saying it "will depend on gasoline prices and other peripheral factors."

BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu has said his Shenzhen-based company plans to sell the e6 model for slightly more than $40,000—competitive with some bigger rivals.

Meanwhile, Ms. Li said BYD is preparing to start supplying all-electric buses to the city of Los Angeles. Talks with the city have been going on since the beginning of this year, when BYD agreed to locate its U.S. headquarters in Los Angeles. Those negotiations involve a possible contract to make BYD a supplier of city buses.

"Initially, we would ship e-buses from China, but eventually we would have to localize production," Ms. Li said, citing a greater cost advantage in assembling those buses in Los Angeles if there is enough demand.

Getting the company to locate its U.S. head office in Los Angeles took significant effort by the city, which agreed to consider conducting a pilot test for the bus, and to buy BYD's all-electric vehicles.

Ms. Li said BYD plans to ship at least one electric bus by the second quarter of next year as "a demonstration vehicle" so that "the city could experience our bus first-hand." If the test produced positive results, then the Los Angeles municipal government and BYD would sign an agreement to make the Chinese company a formal supplier of city buses.

Austin Beutner, a former Wall Street executive who this year was named the city's first deputy mayor, said Los Angeles is interested in using electric vehicles in the city's bus fleet.

"We are spending our policy dollars right now more on electric cars, but maybe we want to tilt it a little bit more toward public transportation," Mr. Beutner said during a recent interview, citing the efficiency of the electric bus in transporting passengers compared with the individual electric passenger car.

To entice BYD to locate an electric-bus factory in Los Angeles, Mr. Beutner said that the city is willing to "put our municipal power to work" and place an order large enough for BYD to do so.

"Los Angeles would be able to buy several thousand electric buses... over a decade or so," he said.

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