Showing posts with label Berkshire Hathaway. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Berkshire Hathaway. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Did Buffett buy into BYD for the auto? (old clip)
From BYD's 2010 1st half report
As an important part of the “Silicon-Iron” strategy of the Group, the energy storage station business also made a major breakthrough during the period. By leveraging on the supporting policies of the State on new energy development, the Group actively participated in new energy projects associated with such policies, including the construction and demonstration operation of solar power stations and energy storage stations. During the Period, two 100KW energy storage stations in Beijing and Shanghai were delivered for use and put into demonstration operation. As for the Wind-PV Energy Storage and Transmission Project with China Electric Power Research Institute, relevant contracts have been signed and delivery of batteries and other related equipment have started. Further, the Group had a number of Megawatt-class energy storage station projects in bidding stage. During the Period, the Group collaborated with renowned overseas residential property developers by installing BYD household energy system for their property developments, which may, through a solar power generation system and together with an energy storage station, achieve complete independence of household energy to power grid systems.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Lou Simpson retiring from Geico
Lou Simpson, the Chicago-based investor with such a stellar track record he once was considered the successor to Warren Buffett, is retiring at the end of the year after decades managing Geico's investment portfolio.
Geico is owned by Buffett's investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. Simpson, 73, who grew up in Highland Park, is the only person other than Buffett who controls Berkshire investments.
"I wish he weren't" retiring, Buffett told me. "Obviously, I would keep him employed till he was 100. I was very surprised when he called me a month ago and said, 'At 74, I'd just as soon turn it over to somebody else.' It was not a happy day at Berkshire. But I'm happy for him."
The two have never delineated their stock picks; Geico's investments are described publicly as Berkshire's. So for about 15 years, reporters and Wall Street analysts often assumed Simpson's moves were Buffett's.
Geico is owned by Buffett's investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. Simpson, 73, who grew up in Highland Park, is the only person other than Buffett who controls Berkshire investments.
"I wish he weren't" retiring, Buffett told me. "Obviously, I would keep him employed till he was 100. I was very surprised when he called me a month ago and said, 'At 74, I'd just as soon turn it over to somebody else.' It was not a happy day at Berkshire. But I'm happy for him."
The two have never delineated their stock picks; Geico's investments are described publicly as Berkshire's. So for about 15 years, reporters and Wall Street analysts often assumed Simpson's moves were Buffett's.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
比亞迪 唱衰台灣電動車
台灣官方與業者積極推動電動車研發，但大陸電動車領導廠比亞迪汽車總經理劉振宇卻不看好台灣發展電動車，他說，比亞迪的電動車應該很快就會賣到台灣，台灣買買大陸的就好了；台灣沒原料、沒市場，「耗在這上面，死路一條」。
在大陸素以說話直白聞名的劉振宇，是比亞迪能從電池行業成功介入汽車產業的關鍵人物。
比亞迪汽車從2003年成立就積極研發電動汽車，劉振宇表示，七年來的成果就是目前大家看到的油電混合車「F3DM」和純電動車「e6」。劉振宇對於比亞迪電動車的技術頗為自豪，他指出，比亞迪始終「貼在技術最高峰」。對於台灣也有意發展電動車，劉振宇直言不諱說，「台灣不要想了」。
曾於2000年到台灣參觀過主要車廠的劉振宇說，「我到台灣汽車廠看了，真可憐」。「日本所有（車）廠在台灣都有兒子，合搞個發動機（引擎）還搞不出來。我們比亞迪搞發動機，簡直沒有感覺。我們現在發動機1升的、1.3升、1.5升、1.6升、1.8升、2.0升，全部都有了。我們搞東西速度之高，不是你們能想像的。」
今年5月27日，賓士母公司戴姆勒與比亞迪簽約，雙方合資成立深圳比亞迪．戴姆勒新技術公司，共同研發新一代電動車，預計2013年將推出首款電動車。劉振宇說，戴姆勒很聰明，不想從零開始搞電池，所以找比亞迪合作，「走我們的老路你就只能走在後面」。
為扶持電動車發展，大陸6月起在上海、深圳、杭州、長春、合肥等地試辦補貼個人購買電動汽車，純電動車每輛最高補貼金額達人民幣6萬元（約新台幣28.3萬元）。不過，劉振宇表示，影響電動車市場前景最關鍵還是油價。「哪個小子再把石油整到（每桶）140美元了，這車就搶了」。
他強調，比亞迪絕不會等油價高漲再積極投入電動車。「我們能領先絕不往後退。我們看清楚了，那玩意趨勢是往上走，不會下來的」。
U.S. Economy Faces `Painful Period' of Debt Unwind, Berkshire's Sokol Says
The U.S. is facing a “painful period” in the next five years as homeowners and governments unwind debt built up during the housing boom, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s David Sokol said today.
“All of that just feeds into a slow-growth environment,” Sokol, who heads Berkshire’s energy and luxury-flight divisions, said today in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. “If we could average 2 percent for the next five years, we’d be pretty happy.”
“It’s going to be a painful period,” said Sokol, whose energy division owns a real-estate brokerage. “If the U.S. grew a consistent 2 percent from this year forward, Europe half a percent and Asia 6.5 to 7 percent, my guess is that we’ll all feel pretty good.”
The credit crisis in 2008 was “such a dramatic jolt to businesses that it did something very positive,” Sokol said. “It made companies that were pretty efficient get a lot more efficient. It made every business I’m involved with really take a hard look at the business model.”
“People have been shocked into the notion that maybe some monthly savings is a good thing,” Sokol said. “We’ll end up with a lot of people that are struggling until their home values come back a little bit.”
Sokol considers his main job at Berkshire to be “whatever Warren wants me to do,” he said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television.
“All of that just feeds into a slow-growth environment,” Sokol, who heads Berkshire’s energy and luxury-flight divisions, said today in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. “If we could average 2 percent for the next five years, we’d be pretty happy.”
“It’s going to be a painful period,” said Sokol, whose energy division owns a real-estate brokerage. “If the U.S. grew a consistent 2 percent from this year forward, Europe half a percent and Asia 6.5 to 7 percent, my guess is that we’ll all feel pretty good.”
The credit crisis in 2008 was “such a dramatic jolt to businesses that it did something very positive,” Sokol said. “It made companies that were pretty efficient get a lot more efficient. It made every business I’m involved with really take a hard look at the business model.”
“People have been shocked into the notion that maybe some monthly savings is a good thing,” Sokol said. “We’ll end up with a lot of people that are struggling until their home values come back a little bit.”
Sokol considers his main job at Berkshire to be “whatever Warren wants me to do,” he said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Warren Buffett's Mr. Fix-It: Full Version
FORTUNE -- The day after Lehman collapsed in September 2008, David Sokol noticed that the stock of Constellation Energy, a Baltimore utility, was plummeting. He called his boss, Warren Buffett, and said, "I see an opportunity here." Buffett, who had noticed the same thing, replied after a brief discussion: "Let's go after it."
Constellation (CEG, Fortune 500) held vast amounts of energy futures contracts that had gone sour, and the company appeared to be on the verge of bankruptcy. Sokol, as chairman of the Berkshire subsidiary MidAmerican Energy Holdings, knew the utility industry and saw a chance to buy solid assets at a bargain price. The deal, however, had to be done within 48 hours or the company would have to file for bankruptcy.
Sokol phoned the office of Constellation CEO Mayo Shattuck III, who was in an emergency board meeting. When his assistant answered, Sokol told her he'd like to speak to him. The secretary replied that if she interrupted the meeting, she might lose her job. Sokol replied, "If you don't interrupt the meeting, you might lose your job."
Sokol boarded a Falcon 50EX and sped to Baltimore. He met with Shattuck and struck a deal that evening to buy the company for $4.7 billion, staving off bankruptcy.
Within weeks, before the acquisition was completed, Constellation's board received a competing bid from Électricité de France for about a 30% premium. The board liked the offer, and so did Sokol -- who walked away with a $1.2 billion breakup fee for Berkshire.
Friday, July 30, 2010
From Tiananmen Square to Possible Buffett Successor
Twenty-one years ago, Li Lu was a student leader of the Tiananmen Square protests. Now a hedge-fund manager, he is in line to become a successor to Warren Buffett at Berkshire HathawayInc.
Mr. Li, 44 years old, has emerged as a leading candidate to run a chunk of Berkshire's $100 billion portfolio, stemming from a close friendship with Charlie Munger, Berkshire's 86-year-old vice chairman. In an interview, Mr. Munger revealed that Mr. Li was likely to become one of the top Berkshire investment officials. "In my mind, it's a foregone conclusion," Mr. Munger said.
The job of filling Mr. Buffett's shoes is among the most high-profile succession stories in modern corporate history. Mr. Buffett, who will turn 80 in a month, says he has no current plans to step down and will likely split his job after he leaves the company into separate CEO and investing functions. Mr. Li's emergence as a contender to oversee Berkshire investments is the first time a name has been identified to fill the investment part of Mr. Buffett's legendary role.
Mr. Li's big hit began in 2002 when he first invested in BYD, then a fledgling Chinese battery company. Its founder came from humble beginnings and started the company in 1995 with $300,000 of borrowed money.
Mr. Li made an initial investment in BYD soon after its initial public offering on the Hong Kong stock exchange. (BYD trades in the U.S. on the Pink Sheets and was recently quoted at $6.90 a share.)
When he opened the fund, he loaded up again on BYD shares, eventually investing a significant share of the $150 million fund with Mr. Munger in BYD, which already was growing quickly and had bought a bankrupt Chinese automaker. "He bought a little early and more later when the stock fell, which is his nature," Mr. Munger says.
In 2008, Mr. Munger persuaded Mr. Sokol to investigate BYD for Berkshire as well. Mr. Sokol went to China and when he returned, he and Mr. Munger convinced Mr. Buffett to load up on BYD. In September, Berkshire invested $230 million in BYD for a 10% stake in the company.
BYD's business has been on fire. It now has close to one-third of the global market for lithium-ion batteries, used in cell phones. Its bigger plans involve the electric and hybrid-vehicle business.
The test for BYD, one of the largest Chinese car makers, will be whether it can deliver on plans to develop the most effective lithium battery on the market that could become an even bigger source of power in the future. Even more promising is the potential to use the lithium battery to store power from other energy sources like solar and wind.
Says Mr. Munger: "The big lithium battery is a game-changer."
BYD is a big roll of the dice for Mr. Li. He is an informal adviser to the company and owns about 2.5% of the company.
Mr. Li's fund's $40 million investment in BYD is now worth about $400 million. Berkshire's $230 million investment in 2008 now is worth about $1.5 billion. Messrs. Buffett, Munger, Sokol, Li and Microsoft founder and Berkshire Director Bill Gates plan to visit China and BYD in September.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Will the American Oil Industry Backfire and Allow the Chinese to Emerge on Top of Electric Car Market?
Last month, I saw a cartoon in the Economist that mocked President Obama for giving a speech to Uncle Sam on changing to clean energy alternatives. Uncle Sam cheered and then said, “Great—I’ll go get the car.” It was an idiotic cartoon in the first place, but the message was clear: Americans don’t have a choice; they must rely on gas. What the cartoonist failed to mention is that Obama owns a hybrid-electric car. Big oil investors have brainwashed Americans into believing that there are no electric cars; there are only gas-fueled cars.
I guarantee that it wouldn’t have cost one fourth of what this government spent on the oil wars to build electric highways with the promotion of electric cars, which would have produced a lot of new jobs. The future is now. We can’t afford to stay stuck in the 1800s.
Do you dream of a near future when oil is nothing more than a dark history of a time when global warming nearly destroyed us and our planet because the oil barons forced our reliance on using the most polluting form of energy so that they could maintain their monopoly, wealth and power? Do you dream of the day when oil is obsolete? Let’s make that dream a reality: buy an electric car.
I’m familiar with the lie that electric cars are not affordable, as if they were double the price of gas fueled cars. New electric cars are not only priced the same as most gas fueled cars, they are far cheaper depending on the model. This lie has been perpetuated by the oil industry to fabricate the false belief that electric cars are not in high demand. The U.S. auto and oil industry have deliberately limited the number of electric cars, creating a shortage to make it appear as though no one wants them—when, in fact, Americans want electric cars.
I guarantee that it wouldn’t have cost one fourth of what this government spent on the oil wars to build electric highways with the promotion of electric cars, which would have produced a lot of new jobs. The future is now. We can’t afford to stay stuck in the 1800s.
Do you dream of a near future when oil is nothing more than a dark history of a time when global warming nearly destroyed us and our planet because the oil barons forced our reliance on using the most polluting form of energy so that they could maintain their monopoly, wealth and power? Do you dream of the day when oil is obsolete? Let’s make that dream a reality: buy an electric car.
I’m familiar with the lie that electric cars are not affordable, as if they were double the price of gas fueled cars. New electric cars are not only priced the same as most gas fueled cars, they are far cheaper depending on the model. This lie has been perpetuated by the oil industry to fabricate the false belief that electric cars are not in high demand. The U.S. auto and oil industry have deliberately limited the number of electric cars, creating a shortage to make it appear as though no one wants them—when, in fact, Americans want electric cars.
The fact that there are no TV ads on electric cars proves that our U.S. auto industry is in bed with Big Oil.
But China’s electric car company, BYD, is going right over the oil industry, and it can’t be stopped. BYD's plug-in, called the F3DM (for "dual mode"), goes farther on a single charge - 62 miles - than other electric vehicles and sells for about $22,000, less than the Prius and Chevy Volt are expected to cost when they hit the market in late 2010. (Fortune) Warren Buffett has invested in BYD because he believes it has a shot at becoming the world's largest automaker, primarily by selling electric cars, as well as a leader in the fast-growing solar power industry. The BYD e6 is an all electric, luxury 5-door hatchback for those who are shopping in the $40,000 market, which is less than most gas fueled SUVs.
More wealthy individuals are joining Warren Buffett to invest in electric cars, solar and wind. It’s unprofitable for Wall Street investors to gamble their money on oil, pollution, global warming and wars. It’s a losing investment. The top world financial leaders are leaving the industrialists behind; they know that the Industrial Age is over; oil & coal are no longer economically viable or sustainable; they’re wisely moving ahead to green investments, and they will make billions of dollars from these non-polluting energy investments. The oil industry cannot stop what is fashionable and popular. In the same way that mobile phones became a popular necessity, electric cars are quickly becoming the “in” vehicles to drive.
I’d like to support our auto industry, but if they want to cling to the 19th century, antiquated, polluting oil age, then China will win this battle by selling and advertising affordable electric cars. Some BYD electric car models may sell as low as $12 to $15,000. At that price, they’ll sell like hot cakes.
Imagine the elated feeling of never having to pay a dime for gas again, and knowing that you’re helping to make the oil industry obsolete. No more pollution. No more global warming. No more oil wars. And no more engine noise. Just clean air and silence…
Monday, July 12, 2010
Electric car maker BYD eyes home appliance market (LED TV?)
Shanghai, July 12 (Gasgoo.com) China's electric automaker BYD Auto is now planning to enter the country's home appliance market, with a new product to launch in the second half of this year. Presently, the automaker has already set up a special team for the new project, BYD said last week.
Reportedly, BYD's home-appliance department is still acting in the shroud of secrecy, without any public announcement that the department has been established lately and some preparatory work has been carried out. However, the move has not yet been confirmed by BYD.
Having achieved great success in the IT industry and the auto industry, especially the latter, BYD is set to move forward, with a wealth of experience and adequate technology, to the home appliance industry.
Unlike the other car manufacturers, BYD had been engaged in the IT industry for years before it stepped into the auto industry, so it is capable of producing and supplying most of the auto parts on its own, ranging from molds to navigator-touch screen. It largely reduces BYD's production costs.
Under BYD's plan, it will establish four kingdoms: IT, automobile, new energy and home appliance. Therefore, in addition to the home appliance industry, it has dedicated a lot to the new energy field in the past.
At the end of last month, BYD started construction of its second solar battery production line in Shangluo city, northern China's Shaanxi province. In the next five years, BYD will produce 5,000 MW of batteries annually in the base, and with a total investment of $3.3 billion, will make it the largest solar battery base in China.
Reportedly, BYD's home-appliance department is still acting in the shroud of secrecy, without any public announcement that the department has been established lately and some preparatory work has been carried out. However, the move has not yet been confirmed by BYD.
Having achieved great success in the IT industry and the auto industry, especially the latter, BYD is set to move forward, with a wealth of experience and adequate technology, to the home appliance industry.
Unlike the other car manufacturers, BYD had been engaged in the IT industry for years before it stepped into the auto industry, so it is capable of producing and supplying most of the auto parts on its own, ranging from molds to navigator-touch screen. It largely reduces BYD's production costs.
Under BYD's plan, it will establish four kingdoms: IT, automobile, new energy and home appliance. Therefore, in addition to the home appliance industry, it has dedicated a lot to the new energy field in the past.
At the end of last month, BYD started construction of its second solar battery production line in Shangluo city, northern China's Shaanxi province. In the next five years, BYD will produce 5,000 MW of batteries annually in the base, and with a total investment of $3.3 billion, will make it the largest solar battery base in China.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Li Lu’s 2010 Lecture at Columbia
Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.
Q&A:
Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?
Q&A:
Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.
Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.
The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.
Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.
Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?
Li Lu: The market will determine that.
Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?
Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.
Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?
Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars. Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.
Q: We read your profile online. I had a question – do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?
Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision. So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.
Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?
Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it. He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable. He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.
So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon. This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.
Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?
Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD. America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.
Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD. America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.
Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything. The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Chinese Foreword by Li Lu (Chinese Version of Poor Charlie’s Almanack)
一个偶然的契机，我遇到了终生的良师益友查理·芒格先生。初识查理是我大学刚毕业在洛杉矶投行工作时，在一位共同朋友的家里第一次见到了查理。记得他给人的第一印象是拒人于千里之外，他对谈话者常常心不在焉，非常专注于自己的话题。但这位老先生说话言简意赅，话语中充满了让你回味无穷的智慧。
【《中国企业家》杂志】20多年前，作为一名年轻学生只身来到美国，我怎么也没有想到后来竟然从事了投资行业，更没想到机缘巧合有幸结识了当代投资大师查理·芒格先生。2004年，芒格先生成为我的投资合伙人，自此成为我终生的良师益友。这样的机遇恐怕是过去做梦也不敢想的。
1996年我从哥伦比亚大学毕业，并于1997年创立我的投资公司，自此开始了我的职业投资生涯。从那时到现在，绝大多数个人投资者和机构投资者在投资理念上基本上还是遵从一些“坏理论”。比如他们相信市场完全有效理论，因而相信股价的波动就等同真实的风险，判断你的表现最看重你业绩的波动性如何。而在我看来，投资股市最大的风险其实并不是价格的上下起伏，而是你的投资未来会不会出现永久性的亏损。单纯的股价下跌不仅不是风险，简直就是机会。不然哪里去找便宜的股票呢?然而我发现，表面上那些成名的基金经理接受巴菲特/芒格的理论，而且对他们表现出极大的尊重，但在实际操作上却根本是南辕北辙，因为他们的客户也是南辕北辙的。他们接受的还是一套“波动性就是风险”、“市场总是对的”这样的理论。
直到我们认识的第七年，在2003年一个感恩节的聚会中，我们进行了一次长时间的推心置腹的交谈。我将我投资的所有公司，我研究过的公司以及引起我兴趣的公司一一介绍给查理，他则逐一点评。我也向他请教我遇到的烦恼。谈到最后，他告诉我，我所遇到的问题几乎就是华尔街的全部问题。整个华尔街的思维方式都有问题，虽然伯克希尔·哈撒韦已经取得了这么大的成功，但在华尔街上却找不到任何一家真正模仿它的公司。如果我继续这样走下去的话，我的那些烦恼永远也不会消除。但我如果愿意放弃现在的路子，想走出与华尔街不同的道路，他愿意给我投资。这真让我受宠若惊。
我于是进入到投资生涯的又一个黄金时期。我无须再受华尔街那些投资者各式各样的限制。虽然数字依然上下波动，但最终结果却是大幅度的增长。新的基金从2004年第四季度至2009年底，除去营运成本外，每年的复合回报率超过36%。而自1998年1月原基金创建开始计算，每年的复合回报率则超过29%。12年间，回报增长超过20倍。
一次，一位漂亮的女士坚持让查理用一个词来总结他的成功，查理说是“理性”。然而，他对理性有更苛刻的定义。正是这样的“理性”，让他具有敏锐独到的眼光和洞察力，即使对于完全陌生的领域，他也能一眼看穿事物的本质。巴菲特把查理的这个特点称作“两分钟效应”——他说查理比世界上任何人更能在最短时间之内把一个复杂商业的本质说清楚。伯克希尔投资比亚迪的经过就是一个例证。记得2003年我第一次同查理谈到比亚迪时，他虽然从没有见过王传福本人，也从未参观过比亚迪的工厂，甚至对中国的市场和文化也相对陌生，可是他当时对比亚迪提出的问题和评论，今天看来仍然是投资比亚迪最实质的问题。
查理喜欢与人早餐约会，时间通常是七点半。记得第一次与查理吃早餐时，我准时赶到，发现查理已经坐在那里把当天的报纸都看完了。虽然离七点半还差几分钟，但让一位德高望重的老人等我让我心里很不好受。第二次约会时，我大约提前了一刻钟到达，发现查理还是已经坐在那里看报纸了。到第三次约会，我提前半小时到达，结果查理还是在那里看报纸，仿佛他从未离开过那个座位，终年守候。直到第四次，我狠狠心提前一个钟头到达，六点半坐那里等候，到六点四十五的时候，查理悠悠地走进来了，手里拿着一摞报纸，头也不抬地坐下，完全没有注意到我的存在。以后我逐渐了解到，查理与人约会一定早到。到了以后也不浪费时间，会拿出准备好的报纸翻阅。
查理非常欣赏孔子。我有时会想，若孔子重生在今天的美国，查理大概会是其最好的化身。若孔子返回到2000年后今天的商业中国，他倡导的大概会是：正心，修身，齐家，致富，助天下吧!
Monday, May 17, 2010
Li Lu on BYD
“BYD is really running on all cylinders,” says Li Lu, a BYD investor and money manager who brought the company to the attention of Berkshire vice chairman Charles Munger several years ago. Munger took the idea to Buffett and to MidAmerican chairman David Sokol, who now sits on BYD’s board.
“The big challenge now is to bring down the initial cost,” Li Lu told me. Eventually, BYD would like to sell the car for about the same price as conventional vehicles, and win over auto buyers by offering them lower operating costs and higher performance. “The only way to conquer this market is to provide a product that is comparable at the beginning and superior in the end,” he said.
“There are not many in the world that have comparable experience and expertise,” Li Lu says. “They seem to have a commanding lead right now.” The BYD technology is super safe, its batteries will last a long time and they will cost less than competitors, he said.
All that remains to be seen, of course. But BYD has not one but three opportunities to change the world–with its electric cars, its rooftop solar panels with battery storage and with large-scale batteries that could be used by electric utilities to store solar or wind power.
If BYD succeeds in even one of those businesses—let alone all three—it will become one of the most important clean tech companies in the world.
李路充满感情地回忆道：“从2004年到现在，近六年的时间，芒格先生既是我的老师、是我最大的投资人，同时也是我的好朋友。我觉得自己非常非常的幸运。”
李路说：“对我来讲，这是一段很愉快的经历，我介绍芒格和巴菲特先生认识中国比亚迪，帮助他们谈判，自己也成为大股东，我非常高兴能够促成这件事情。这项合作不仅对伯克希尔和比亚迪是很好的投资，成就了中国和美国的具有重大意义的价值投资，同时比亚迪创新的技术对人类所面临的能源挑战也是一个非常好的解决方案。”
李路介绍说：“比亚迪从开始创业就开始赚钱，上市的时候借了一笔钱，但是当时盈利状况已经非常的好。比亚迪的盈利能力非常强，尽管中国汽车行业内有些数据不公开，但是我猜想比亚迪应该是中国汽车行业盈利水平是最高的，如果说比亚迪在全球的汽车行业中盈利水平是最高的，我也不会惊讶。”
据李路介绍，比亚迪平均每年销售额都以70%的速度增长，2009年已经达到400多亿这样的规模，创造了全世界少有的企业成就。
李路说：“我们很快会看到比亚迪新能源技术、太阳能技术、醇电站技术，三者结合所提供的服务，这恰恰是能够解决人类面临的石化能源危机的最佳的、全套的方案。”
李路说：“比亚迪公司是所我看到的最有可能成为代表中国制造向中国创造转向的企业。如果比亚迪在绿色技术的创新上再次成功的话，这不仅对中国未来的经济发展能够解决最大的瓶颈问题，也会对全球经济面临最大的挑战提供全套的方案，更会逆转全球气候变暖的趋势，使得人类在地球上的“租期”可以持续延长。”
李路介绍说：“比亚迪从开始创业就开始赚钱，上市的时候借了一笔钱，但是当时盈利状况已经非常的好。比亚迪的盈利能力非常强，尽管中国汽车行业内有些数据不公开，但是我猜想比亚迪应该是中国汽车行业盈利水平是最高的，如果说比亚迪在全球的汽车行业中盈利水平是最高的，我也不会惊讶。”
据李路介绍，比亚迪平均每年销售额都以70%的速度增长，2009年已经达到400多亿这样的规模，创造了全世界少有的企业成就。
李路说：“我们很快会看到比亚迪新能源技术、太阳能技术、醇电站技术，三者结合所提供的服务，这恰恰是能够解决人类面临的石化能源危机的最佳的、全套的方案。”
李路说：“比亚迪公司是所我看到的最有可能成为代表中国制造向中国创造转向的企业。如果比亚迪在绿色技术的创新上再次成功的话，这不仅对中国未来的经济发展能够解决最大的瓶颈问题，也会对全球经济面临最大的挑战提供全套的方案，更会逆转全球气候变暖的趋势，使得人类在地球上的“租期”可以持续延长。”
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Batteries Are Included in KB Home and BYD's Solar House
The home of the future – with solar-electric modules on the roof and a lithium-ion battery in the garage – may have a welcome mat out sooner than expected.
The California-based builder KB Home and China's BYD Co., which makes plug-in cars, batteries and solar equipment, have partnered to build modestly priced homes in Lancaster, Calif., that will go a step further than other new solar housing developments by including battery storage of the solar electricity.
Off-grid solar owners for many years have used battery banks to store their generated electricity for later use, but the plan for the KB Home development – smack in the middle of a grid-tied suburban subdivision – could help alter the trajectory for adoption of both solar electricity and plug-in vehicles.
"The energy produced by the solar panels during the peak time is stored in the battery system and can be used later at night for the home," said Bill Wang, business development director for BYD America Corp., at a press conference to announce the partnership in Lancaster, a city about 70 miles north of Los Angeles.
Each home will have solar panels, batteries, LED lights, and other energy-related materials made by BYD Corp., a mainland Chinese company with divisions that make batteries and automobiles.
Storing electricity generated by the solar panels enables homeowners to cut their energy costs and not rely on utility companies, especially during peak times.
“This is the way we can change the world,” said Stella Li, CEO of BYD Electronics, and senior vice president with BYD Corp.
The city played matchmaker to bring KB Homes and BYD together and it took only 45 days for the two companies to work out their arrangement.
That the deal was completed in such a short period of time did not surprise Parris who in his first term has done much to change the culture at City Hall. He treats his position as that of a chief executive: giving everyone a chance to speak, making and decision and doing it.
“I think it will surprise a lot of other people because we’ve gotten to the point where government is seen as an obstacle,” Parris said.
BYD's Future Village
Other Related News
BYD to launch hybrid cars for mass market on Monday
Chinese car and battery maker BYD Co, backed by U.S. billionaire investor Warren Buffett, said it will start sales of plug-in hybrid cars with solar panels to the public in Shenzhen on Monday.
The company said it will go ahead with the plan to sell the car to mass consumers as planned, despite rumours that it might postpone the date while waiting for the government to announce new consumer subsidies for new energy cars.
"There had been some rumours that we might delay," BYD spokesman Paul Lin told Reuters in a telephone interview on Sunday. "This will be an upgraded version of the F3DM that we have sold to government and corporate clients."
BYD's new F3DM is a low emission version with a solar panel on the top of the car, allowing it to run on gasoline, electricity and solar energy.
The solar panel can collect energy for the car in daytime although it is not designed to power the car alone, Lin said.
Chinese car and battery maker BYD Co (1211.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) will buy a plant from a major Japanese metal die manufacturer to enhance its competitive edge in auto production, Japan's Nikkei business daily reported on Saturday. BYD will take over Ogihara Corp's factory in Tatebayashi, Gunma Prefecture, about 70 km (43 miles) north of Tokyo, on April 1, to manufacture high-precision metal dies for use at its Chinese factories, Nikkei said. One of Ogihara's four domestic die production bases, the Tatebayashi plant makes dies for hoods and other auto body parts, accounting for some 20 percent of its production capacity at home. Ogihara supplies dies to Japanese and foreign automakers, including General Motors Co [GM.UL]. Its earnings have been sliding due to the yen's rise and weak domestic demand, Nikkei said.
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