Tuesday, January 26, 2016

干货:老王2016比亚迪投资者大会的三段话

至今没有忘记2015年1月,比亚迪投资者大会中,老王(王传福—比亚迪董事局主席)感动落泪的场景。
  至今没有忘记2015年1月,比亚迪投资者大会中,老王(王传福—比亚迪董事局主席)感动落泪的场景。
  在那场被“迪粉”簇拥的大会中,老王曾回顾:2014年,在私人领域,插电式混动轿车“秦”年销量14747辆,成为新能源车年度销量冠军;公共领域,e6纯电动出租车在国内售出3560辆,K9纯电动大巴更进入全球44个城市。
  在此背景下,王传福透露,比亚迪未来将实现新能源汽车全产业链、全市场布局,不仅在“三电”技术上巩固优势,同时也将进军工程、物流等多个领域。“比亚迪要将把电动化进行到底,不只是大巴,出租车、私家车,还有矿山用车、机场用车,港口、码头等等,”王传福说,“至少我这一辈子是做不过来的,太多了,我们也不希望再做别的领域,这已经足够了。这就是我们比亚迪未来对整个电动车的规划。”
  介于2015年新能源汽车在国内的持续放量,比亚迪可谓收获颇丰,作为“老板”,老王的喜悦之情自然也溢于言表。在近日召开的比亚迪投资者大会中,老王自信的说:“BYD去年销售额800亿,比前年提升了40%。”
  2016年比亚迪公共领域用车将持续爆发
  比亚迪今年保守预测:大巴10000台,出租车13000台,专用车7500台,叉车3000台。
  巴士
  老王首先回顾,2015年,比亚迪年大巴订单是7500台,BYD在8米以上电动大巴市占率100%。
  根据老王预测,2016年,比亚迪将预计出货一万台大巴。老王指出,这个预测很保守,广州加深圳估计就9000台了,因此,大胆估计,比亚迪2016年的巴士市场有可能15000台。
  据比亚迪官方透露,2015年,仅深圳就的确为比亚迪消化了3600台大巴,BYD是通过招标以最高分拿下的,不是靠照顾。因此,2016对深圳市场的计划是6000台。
  老王同时表示,市面上骗补贴的6~8米大巴,电池居然只有一台e6的一半,国补一但查下来,很多企业会出事。
  物流车
  近日,京东商城已在年会上宣布,订购一万台比亚迪电动物流车。春节前,老王将亲自带队谈判。
  出租车
  老王指出,近来,针对山西太原市的比亚迪出租车交付问题,业界有诸多争论。但太原的8000台出租车订单,本月将交付500台,2016年2、3月份每个月将至少交付1000台,上半年交付完毕。
  电池成本将快速下探,比亚迪电池最安全
  老王预测,国家社贴虽然退坡,但在该过程中,由对传统燃油车的补贴逐步转向电动汽车企业已是不争事实,2017年将开始推行。
  他同时指出,目前,比亚迪电动汽车毛利率在20%左右。30-50台比亚迪F3(一台利润1000元)的利润还比不上一台唐的利润。不过,电动汽车量上去了,成本下降会非常快。不过,比亚迪2015年却未出现一次电池起火事故。(而特斯拉是7次)。比亚迪电池成本下降很快,到2020年20度电就只要二万元成本。单体电芯做到1元/WH以下。实现BYD电动汽车成本全球最低目标。
  2016将加速市场推广
  “环卫车阅兵式后,北京开始认识到BYD的技术先进,未来会专为北京市场设计专门的纯电元、秦、宋。”老王表示。他坦言,比亚迪未来会注重新型销售网络的建设,如电商等。因此,接下来,会考虑继续加大市场营销投入。从目前统计数据看,比亚迪唐目前欠市场订单一万台订单,86%唐车主的大学学历,而奔驰宝马只有50%多。
  首先,比亚迪去年广告费为3亿,今年会有10亿。纽约时代广场广告价格不高,但效果非常好。
  其次,就配套营销服务方面,比亚迪的充电桩的技术全球领先,现行的最新国标也是以比亚迪为主制定的。

Monday, January 18, 2016

王传福:比亚迪已与百度合作研发无人驾驶

比亚迪董事长兼总裁王传福近日参加第一财经最佳商业领袖颁奖活动,在接受《第一财经日报》独家专访时透露,该企业不仅自身已研发自动驾驶技术,还与百度合作研发两三个月了。
    无人驾驶汽车热潮正袭来,谷歌、百度等互联网企业以及宝马、奔驰、丰田等车企已正在无人驾驶领域赛跑。如今,这一阵营又添了一名重量级选手,那就是刚晋升全球头号新能源汽车制造商的比亚迪。
    具有战略性前瞻眼光的王传福,于2005年开始打造太阳能电站、储能电站以及电动车三大绿色梦想,通过10年不懈努力,终于在2015年以6.59万辆的成绩单登上全球新能源汽车销量冠军的宝座,而且去年在太阳能板块实现扭亏为盈。抓住了电动化契机的比亚迪,也已开始在智能化、互联网化等方面布局。
    “我们已在研究无人驾驶,原来是内部在做,但在研发无人驾驶过程中,需要很精密的地图,没有精密的地图很难做好,而百度有这个优势。因此,我们整车厂要和有地图的这种厂家去合作,这样可以使这项业务做得更好。”王传福说,有些特殊领域,比如出租车、大巴,可能是特别迫切要无人驾驶,因为在这些领域无人驾驶可以节省人工成本。
    继18世纪中叶瓦特发明的蒸汽机引起了世界性的产业革命之后,汽车产业一次次被新技术推动前行,如今正迎来第四次革命,电动化、智能化、互联网化以及社会化将代表汽车产业未来发展的大方向。在16日举行的第六届全球新能源汽车大会(GNEV6)上,全球战略咨询公司AlbrightStonebridgeGroup副总裁AnandShah在以“智能汽车与汽车共享:梦想走进现实”为主题演讲时表示,无人驾驶可能会改变整个汽车行业的现状。
    已将无人驾驶汽车开上公路的谷歌公司表示,希望与传统汽车厂商和元件供应商建立更多的合作关系,加速推进无人驾驶汽车项目。而百度的无人驾驶车也已在国内首次实现在城市、环路及高速道路混合路况下的全自动驾驶,就在去年12月的第二届世界互联网大会上,百度无人车高调亮相,该公司CEO李彦宏介绍了百度无人车的进展情况,包括其自主研发程度、最高时速、成本、量产计划等问题。
    无人驾驶汽车产业被认为发展潜力巨大,在今年1月初举行的美国CES消费电子展上,多家汽车厂商发布无人驾驶汽车相关的产品与技术。有报道称,未来3至5年内,预计全球车联网市场规模将达到3000亿元。考虑到汽车无人驾驶的巨大市场空间,国内外互联网和传统汽车制造巨头目前都在纷纷加码布局该领域。
    无人驾驶技术对“技术狂人”王传福来说也是非常有吸引力。在他看来,无人驾驶现是处于概念阶段,从技术上讲应该是没有什么大的问题,而随着技术的完善以后,无人驾驶是完全可行的,但有可能会碰到一些法律上的问题,“以后假如说阻碍无人驾驶的发展,绝对不是技术问题,而是一个法律上的问题”。
    王传福还谈到,目前比亚迪在无人驾驶汽车的商业应用上暂时还没有计划,该公司还只是当成一个研究去做。他认为,比亚迪现在更主要的是将精力放在通过智能控制减少车祸,将现有的行车安全率提升十倍,这是比亚迪当下发展的重中之重。

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Huge BYD Storage Project In Lancaster, BYD’s EV Master Plan, Tesla’s EV Master Plan

Kyle FieldMatthew Klippenstein, and I had an extra long session for Cleantech Talk #16. In this episode, we discussed…
… a big huge BYD energy storage project that is supposed to help Lancaster, California, become a net-zero-energy city. (Matthew found out about the 500 MW project on another podcast — storage capacity is unknown at this point. There are more details down in the show notes.)
You can listen and subscribe to our podcasts on iTunes or SoundCloud, you can listen by hitting the play button in the embedded player below, or you can download the podcast and then listen.
Matthew puts together show notes, and we’ve decided to share those here now as well:
Story 1 – massive “battery peaker plant”
CleanTechnica has previously featured the city of Lancaster, California, highlighting how its Republican (!) Mayor convinced city council to pass a law in March 2013 requiring solar panelsto be installed for every newly-built single family home, as of January 1, 2014.
Lancaster – which enjoys 350 days of sunshine per year – is aiming to be a net-zero-electricity city by 2020, producing as much power within city limits as it consumes, each year. Home to BYD’s North American electric bus manufacturing facilities, it stands a good chance of reaching its stated goal of becoming the Alternative Energy Capital of the World.
And now its chances have gotten even better.
On a recent conference call of West Coast mayors convened by the No New Fossil Fuel Infrastructure movement, Mayor Parris revealed that the city of Lancaster is working with BYD on a 500 MW energy storage system. A BYD representative confirmed this via email, taking care to emphasize that discussions were still in the early stages. (A big, big tip of the hat to Alex Smith’s Radio Ecoshock podcast.)
This is a big, big deal.
Greentech Media had projected that cumulative battery storage installations in the United States wouldn’t exceed a power rating of 500 MW until 2018 – and even then, just barely. Some upward revisions may be in order…!
If the project under discussion follows the typical pattern of 4 MWh energy storage per 1 MW power capacity (meaning that the batteries are sized to be able to discharge at 100% of rated power for four hours) that would mean this “battery peaker plant” would involve an enormous 2 GWh of BYD’s lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. That’s 2 million kWh, which is the equivalent of 200,000 Tesla Powerwalls, or 22,000 top-of-the-line Telsa Model S or X 90D’s.
It’s also about double the 280 MW of battery storage that California utility SoCal Edison recently signed up for.
And this project’s size – on par with many legacy natural gas peakers – might make it a milestone we back on years from now, marking the beginning of our transition in earnest to battery peaker plants.
All in all, it’s fantastic news with which to ring in the New Year — and all of us at CleanTechnica(and the Cleantech Talk podcast too) can’t wait to bring you the daily latest and greatest as we accelerate into this epochal transition!
This battery peaker plant should work well for Lancaster, the per-capita solar capital of America. (A comparison from three years ago had them at 130 Watts of solar panels installed per capita, way ahead of second-place San Jose which had 40 Watts. Given the growth of photovoltaics since then, their per-capita lead alone is probably 130 Watts by now…)
City Council had also come out swinging against a proposed 570 MW natural gas combined-cycle generator in the neighbouring city of Palmdale, so the city’s support for the battery peaker could be a case of proving their new proposal better. It would also help them manage any “duck curve” effects they might see from the solar infrastructure they continue to build throughout the city. As such, the battery peaker should greatly enhance the value of Lancaster’s solar electricity – the California Energy Storage Alliance estimates the value of storage-backed solar at 25 cents/kWh!
Story 2 – BYD vs. Tesla masterplan
The contrast in BYD and Tesla business plans makes for a great “pincer” movement on personal vehicles, with Tesla attacking from above (with unparalleled aspirational vehicles) and BYD striking from below (moving up the aspirational ladder).
BYD anticipated sales of 6,000 electric buses worldwide in 2015, roughly on par with the number of buses (of all sorts) sold in the United States every year. Worldwide, there are probably about half a million (500,000) buses in the world, with the number expected to increase as urban centers grow and become more dense.
It’s worth noting that they use lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LiFePO4), instead of the lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide type (“NMC” or LiNiMnCoO2) favoured by Tesla and many other electric vehicle makers. The advantage of NMC batteries is superior energy density, with the disadvantage being stability. Safety systems need to be designed around them to prevent freak instances of thermal runaway (fires) during recharging. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries have roughly half the energy density, but are very stable, so need a lot less in the way of protective sub-systems. BYD clearly thinks the savings make their chemistry worthwhile.
A decent high-level overview of litihium-ion battery chemistries is here.
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