Howard Marks' Memo

Link to the Memo

CNBC Transcript: Warren Buffett's 'Stock Split' Interview

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Part 2


Part 3

David Sokol on Economy, Housing and BYD

BYD May Be Australia’s Second Chinese Carmaker

AUSTRALIA MAY SOON have a second Chinese carmaker entering the local market. News from Detroit this week suggests that China’s BYD is investigating its options here.  With sales of over 450,000 cars in 2009, the Chinese carmaker is aiming for 800,000 sales in 2010. Speaking at Detroit, BYD’s exports boss Henri Li told press that BYD could arrive in Australia in two to three years. Mr Li said that BYD is in early discussion with potential importers, but that the lack of right-hand-drive models in the company’s line-up will delay its aspirations in the Australian market until around 2012 or 2013.

Link to the News

Related Stats:

2009 Vehicle Sales in Australia: 937,328

2009 Passenger Car Sales in Australia: 540,562

Overview of Automotive Industry in Australia (2008)

Some Interesting Comments on BYD:

If you don't know BYD, you don't know China.

"Never underestimate them," said David Sokol, chairman of MidAmerican Energy, who spent three weeks with Wang in China touring BYD's facilities.

Sokol says Wang and his leadership is the single biggest reason that the Buffett team decided to bet big on the company.

BYD's inexpensive gasoline car, the F3, became a top selling sedan in China, appealing to younger consumers who couldn't afford cars. Then, last year at the Detroit Auto Show, BYD introduced an all-electric vehicle, the e6 The car drives more than 200 miles on a single charge, according to the company. "I don't think anyone else is close to that," Sokol said. 

Wang hires the top 1% of graduates from China's best universities to train them to be engineers. Then he puts them into the teams and gives them specific problems to solve. The startup environment creates a rapid feedback loop between the R&D team and the production lines, Sokol says. At BYD factories, Sokol witnessed production line workers actually build 100-150 cars, using specific feedback from R&D. This way, the production team could test their tweaks on cars before applying the changes to 100,000 vehicles. "I see very few organizations that tie their R&D with manufacturing lines as quickly as he has done," Sokol said.

Sokol says a "no-untouchable policy" is an unwritten rule of BYD. "If a company's founder invented something in the past, some companies don't ever want you to re-improve on that," Sokol said. But Wang and BYD workers don't view the past as something to be protected. Instead, they see it as something to be challenged.

Sokol notes that Wang not only walked up to workers and talked to them -- he knew their names, and specific problems and fixes they were working on. "He is incredibly hands-on with his engineering team," Sokol said.

A lot of Chinese would rather work for BYD than American companies, Rein says. "Why would you like to work for Google (in China)?" Rein said. "The highest you can reach is the country head. When you work for BYD, you can climb up corporate levels. Plus, it's more exciting."

Wang also lives in a company apartment. Rein says it's rare for a wealthy businessman like Wang, now one of China's richest men, to live with other workers. "That's why Chinese workers respect him even more," Rein said.

BYD Company Website

Hoisington's 4Q09 Review and Outlook

Presently, we view the inflationary environment as benign because: 1) the U.S. economic system is overleveraged and academic research confirms that this circumstance leads to deflation; 2) monetary policy is, and will continue to be, ineffectual as efforts to spur growth are thwarted by declining asset prices, loan destruction, and adverse regulatory influences; 3) the federal government’s spending spree will necessarily cause taxes and borrowings to rise, further stunting any economic growth. These factors ensure that inflation will be quiescent. Interest rates easily can and do rise for short periods, but remaining elevated in a disinflationary environment is contrary to the historical experience. We are owners and buyers of long U.S. Treasury debt.

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