Jeremy Grantham Speaks

GMO Quarterly Letter May09 -- The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years

Just for Fun: One Strategist’s List of (Hopefully Well-informed) Guesses

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Reinvesting When Terrified

It was psychologically painful in 1999 to give up making money on the way up and to expose yourself to the career risk that comes with looking like an old fuddy duddy. Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash
has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve to reinforce the wisdom of your caution. Every decline will enhance the beauty of cash until, as some of us experienced in 1974, ‘terminal paralysis’ sets in. Those who were over invested will be catatonic and just sit and pray. Those few who look brilliant, oozing cash, will not want to easily give up their brilliance. So almost everyone is watching and waiting with their inertia beginning to set like concrete. Typically, those with a lot of cash will miss a very large chunk of the market recovery.

For the record, we now believe the S&P is worth 900 at fair value or 30% above today’s price. Global equities are even cheaper.

In June 1933, long before all the banks had failed or unemployment had peaked, the S&P rallied 105% in 6 months. Similarly, in 1974 it rallied 148% in 5 months in the UK! How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves? Finally, be aware that the market does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before.

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GMO QUARTERLY LETTER ( + A Recent Interview by Forbes.com )

Current Recommendations
Slowly and carefully invest your cash reserves into global equities, preferring high quality U.S. blue chips and emerging market equities. Imputed 7-year returns are moderately above normal and much above the average of the last 15 years. But be prepared for a decline to new lows this year or next, for that would be the most likely historical pattern, as markets love to overcorrect on the downside after major bubbles. 600 or below on the S&P 500 would be a more typical low than the 750 we reached for one day.

In fixed income, risk finally seems to be attractively priced, in that most risk spreads seem attractively wide. Long government bond rates, though, seem much too low. They reflect the short-term fears of economic weakness and the need for low short-term rates. We would be short long government bonds in appropriate accounts.

As for commodities, who knows? There were a few months where they looked like a high-confidence short, but now they are half-price or less, and are much lowerconfidence bets.

In currencies, we know even less. It is easy to find currencies to dislike, and hard to find ones to like. There are no high-confidence bets, in our opinion. For the long term, research should be directed into portfolios that would resist both inflationary problems and potential dollar weakness. These are the two serious problems that we may have to face as a consequence of flooding the global financial system with government bailouts and government debt.

Fearless Forecasts for the Long Term
Under the shock of massive deleveraging caused by the equally massive write-down of perceived global wealth, we expect the growth rate of GDP for the whole developed world to continue the slowing trend of the last 12 years as we outlined in April 2008. Since this recent shock overlaps with slowing population growth, it will soon be widely recognized that 2% real growth would be a realistic target for the G7, even after we recover from the current negative growth period. Emerging countries are, of course, a different story. They will probably recover more quickly, and will continue to grow at double (or better) the growth rate of developed countries. (See “The Emerging Emerging Bubble,” April 2008.)

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Link to the Interview by Forbes.com

Interview with Jeremy Grantham

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Reaping the Whirlwind(Part 1 & 2) -- Jeremy Grantham

At under 1000 on the S&P 500, U.S. stocks are very reasonable buys for brave value managers willing to be early. The same applies to EAFE and emerging equities at October 10th prices, but even more so. History warns, though, that new lows are more likely than not. Fixed income has wide areas of very attractive, aberrant pricing. The dollar and the yen look okay for now, but the pound does not. Don’t worry at all about infl ation. We can all save up our worries there for a couple of years from now and then really worry! Commodities may have big rallies, but the fundamentals of the next 18 months should wear them down to new two-year lows. As for us in asset allocation, we have made our choice: hesitant and careful buying at these prices and lower. Good luck with your decisions.

Link to the Letter

GMO Quarterly Letter (Jeremy Grantham)

Meltdown! The Global Competence Crisis

I thought things would be bad enough but they turned out to be a lot worse. I thought a year ago we were looking at the “fi rst truly global bubble” in asset prices. The credit crisis looked to be so predictably powerful and unstoppable then that I likened the experience to “watching a slow
motion train wreck,” and I predicted that “one major bank (broadly defi ned) will fail within 5 years,” for which I got considerable grief as a doomsayer, as the less optimistic strategists usually do. Well a year later one bank failure looks positively quaint as a prediction. Ironically for a “perma bear,” I underestimated in almost every way how badly economic and fi nancial fundamentals would turn out. Events must now be disturbing to everyone, and I for one am offi cially scared!

Living Beyond Our Means: Entering the Age of Limitations


How many times over the last 200 years have gloomy economists predicted limitations to growth? And always they were wrong. Science and human ingenuity always came to the rescue. Instead of rising steadily in price, raw materials and food fell in real terms. And since hourly
income rose, raw materials became ever more affordable as the specter of starvation, although always around, steadily retreated. Food, for example, fell from 70% of a typical American’s budget 200 years ago to about 10% today. And, every time a warning was redundant, the idea
that science always wins and that the human brain and talent are boundless and can conquer all took deeper root. We have learned in the stock market not to underestimate the power of repeated events to create a consensus. Humans are just plain eager to see patterns, and 200 years of increasing plenty in the face of recurrent pessimism is serious reinforcement indeed. It is hardly surprising, therefore, to fi nd ourselves in a position where faith in our ability to rise above the planet’s limitations is complete.

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Thanks to Vinod from MSN BRK Shareholders Board

A voice in the wilderness who won’t be quiet

Jeremy Grantham does not take any pleasure in watching world markets melt down. Well, perhaps just a little.

This is because back in mid-November, the chairman of the Boston-based money manager GMO was feeling pretty foolish. He had just read in the Financial Times that corporate profit margins were taking a hit from the economic slowdown, and the news sent him into in a rare panic.

The 69-year-old investor had long thought those margins were the last leg propping up a shaky US economy, and if they collapsed, many other things would follow.

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This Credit Crisis Has a Long Way to Run

Interview with Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist, GMO

ONE OF THE GRANDEST OF THINKERS AND MOST ELOQUENT of oracles, Jeremy Grantham has long been the voice of reason in an industry prone to excesses and embellishment. By taking the long view, blending quantitative strategies and technical analysis with sound and experienced judgment, Grantham, chairman of Boston-based GMO, consistently uncovers with his team the best values among a wide range of global asset classes.

The payoff is outstanding performance and risk management. In return, clients have entrusted the firm with about $150 billion. As the man who warned early of a worldwide bubble forming, we turned to him as that bubble has started bursting.

Interview Transcript

Grantham Sees Huge Opportunity in "Anti-Risk"

Jeremy Grantham says he's spotted the third great investing opportunity of his career. The first was small caps in the 1970s. The second was real estate, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and value stocks during the tech bubble in 2000. Before you get too excited, I should make clear that the main opportunity today, in Grantham's view, is getting out of the way and watching the markets plummet in what he calls a slow-motion train wreck. Grantham made this call in a report published July 25--a day before the Dow got 300 points sliced off the top (talk about instant gratification!).

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Grantham Says Hedge Funds, LBO Funds to Collapse

Generally I agree with Mr. Grantham's take, but how will the whole thing play out? Nobody knows...

Jeremy Grantham, the money manager who oversees $150 billion as chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC, said credit-market declines may force as many as half of all hedge funds to close in the next five years.

The loss of investors' appetite for risk also may cause at least one global bank and ``one or two'' of the largest private- equity firms to go out of business, Grantham, known for his pessimistic outlook, said yesterday. The 68-year-old investor said he's still bullish on emerging-markets stocks. Read More